
OPEC+ will lower its output cuts to 7.7 million barrels per day from August 1, down from 9.7 million in July. Iraq and Nigeria are set to compensate for overproduction, bringing the effective cut to about 8.1 million barrels per day.
Effective supply returning to the market is bearish for crude, lowering energy input costs that influence biofuel margins and vegetable oil prices.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.