Brent rose 2.4% to $113.43 and WTI rose 2.1% to $104.12 at the close of the last session of the week. An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an explosive device attached by a small boat, and the US Embassy in Riyadh ordered non-emergency staff to leave.
Attacks on tankers and regional energy facilities threaten crude flows through Hormuz, supporting crude prices and the diesel and fuel costs that feed into farm and transport costs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.