New Zealand's milk production growth slowed to 1.9% year-on-year in September, according to Fonterra's October Global Dairy Update. The 12-month figure eased to 4.3%, and the season-to-date collection is up 2.9%.
A slowing New Zealand milk supply with El Niño looming tightens expectations for global dairy supply growth, which supports milk prices and reduces the case for lower-cost dairy inputs for feed buyers.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.