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Rabobank's Q2 Global Dairy Quarterly says global milk production growth slowed in the second quarter of 2026, after four quarters of expansion above 2%. It expects output to be 1.5% higher year on year in Q2, flatten in Q3 and fall 1.6% in Q4.
Higher input costs and margin pressure on farms are cited as key factors.
A move toward production decline later in 2026 could tighten global dairy supply and support prices. Rabobank also flags El Niño risks to South American, Australian and New Zealand milk output.
rabobank.com.auMedia Release DateJun 15, 2026After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
