
US retail gasoline averaged $4.20 a gallon and diesel about $6.32 a gallon heading into the November 3 midterm elections, both record levels for this time of year. Gasoline was up roughly 38-40% and diesel about 70% year over year.
Diesel is a key cost for trucking, harvesting and feed delivery, so higher diesel raises feed and livestock logistics costs and supports energy-linked price pressure across farm inputs.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.