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Chicago soybeans closed sharply lower after a wetter five-day forecast and a cooler 11-15 day outlook. Oil World cut its 2016/17 China soybean import estimate to 80-82 MMT from USDA's 87 MMT, and Argentina was reportedly reconsidering its planned export tax cuts.
Lower weather risk and weaker Chinese import expectations point to a larger supply overhang, which pressures soybean and meal prices.
2agriculture.comChris BruylantJul 20, 2016After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
