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China published its 2017 fertilizer export tariff schedule on December 23, 2016. Export tariffs on urea, MAP, DAP, TSP, SSP and ammonium chloride were cancelled, along with those on low-weight NP, NK and NPK compounds.
Tariffs on potash products were left unchanged, and high-weight NPK compounds were cut from 30% to 20%.
Removing export tariffs on urea and phosphates should lower China's export costs and allow more product to reach world markets, which is bearish for those nitrogen and phosphate prices. Potash supply is unaffected, so its price outlook is unchanged.
acefertilizer.comDec 23, 2016After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
