
DTN senior ag meteorologist Bryce Anderson expects US drought conditions to ease into the new year in most areas. The Southeast, which had flash drought in the fall, may see relief from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley, and California is expected to receive snow in the Sierra Nevada.
Anderson says the La Niña is ending or has already ended.
Expected drought relief reduces weather risk premium for US crops, which is mildly bearish for corn, soybean and wheat prices heading into planting.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.