European fertilizer prices, including urea and KAS, rose further after a mid-November spike, with farm-level prices up 2 to 3 euros per 100 kg over three weeks. China has closed high-emission plants and cut urea output, turning it into a net importer.
Traders expect no near-term decline, and a large Indian urea tender is adding demand.
Chinese export cuts and an Indian import tender tighten global urea supply, which keeps nitrogen fertilizer costs for feed grain growers elevated.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.