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Diplomatic tensions between France and Algeria have put the supply of urea fertilizer at risk. The dispute could disrupt trade flows between the two countries.
A supply disruption from a major nitrogen fertilizer exporter would raise urea prices and feed through to higher grain production costs.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.