
Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on Oct 1, 2024, after two sessions of declines, as Indonesia planned to raise its October crude palm oil reference price by $54 to $893.64 a ton. The new price sets October export tax at $74 a ton.
A higher Indonesian reference price raises export tax and narrows the Indonesian palm discount, which tightens export competitiveness and supports Bursa palm prices.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Oct 1 palm futures rebounded after Indonesia announced a higher October CPO reference price of $893.64/t, a signal of firm prices that reflects tight supply; this directly coincides with the move date.
Oct 1 rebound after Indonesia raised its October CPO reference price, which signals higher export costs and supports prices.
Indonesia's planned higher October reference price and export tax at the start of the window lifted palm after two down sessions, signaling firmer export costs and tighter export supply.