
The euro rose to a one-month high near $1.0699 after some ECB policymakers raised the possibility of rate hikes before bond purchases end. Markets also priced in a more than 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase that week after strong US payrolls.
Expectations of Fed tightening support the dollar and weigh on dollar-priced commodities, while the euro's rise reflects ECB hike speculation that is not yet broadly backed.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.