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A farmdoc daily article previews the USDA Prospective Plantings report due March 31, 2017. It compares historical USDA planting survey estimates with private analyst expectations for corn, soybeans and wheat.
Planting intention surprises shift expected new-crop supply and can move corn, soybean and wheat futures, so buyers should watch the gap between USDA and private estimates.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoMar 30, 2017After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
