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USDA's February WASDE and Crop Production Annual Summary showed December 1 corn stocks of 11.952 billion bushels, below last year and the pre-report estimate. USDA cut 2018 corn yield by 2.5 bushels per acre to 176.4, and winter wheat seedings fell to the lowest level since 1909.
Grain futures reacted only slightly, with March corn down about 2 cents.
Lower corn stocks and yield tighten the old-crop balance sheet, but the muted price reaction shows the market had largely priced in the numbers. Feed buyers should expect limited near-term price pressure from these reports.
dtnpf.comDana MantiniFeb 8, 2019After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
