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Farmdoc analysis says USDA projects relatively low 2025/26 ending stocks, yet new-crop December corn has traded between about $4.10 and $4.30 per bushel since early July. The author attributes the gap to market expectations for unrealized yield figures that differ from USDA estimates.
The first official NASS yield estimate is due in August.
The disconnect between tight projected balance sheets and historically low prices means the August NASS yield report could trigger sizable corn price volatility.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoJul 24, 2025After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
