A University of Missouri analyst said the USDA Cattle on Feed report points to more slaughter cattle this fall. He warned that larger runs could pressure cattle prices.
He also said resuming US beef exports to China by mid-July is critical for market access.
Expected larger fall slaughter supplies are bearish for cattle prices, while stalled China access limits demand for beef and pork. Together these factors weigh on livestock values into late 2017.
After 121 past bearish trade events, LCATTLE moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, HOGS moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.