Feeder cattle futures led a livestock sell-off after announcements on beef import quotas and overextended market conditions, with October live cattle falling to 213.50. Feeder cash prices dropped $35 over the past month and commercial traders net sold, while lean hog futures held steady on higher cash and cutout values.
Expected beef import quotas add supply and pressure cattle prices, while lean hogs are supported by firm pork cutout values.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 85 past bullish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +4.5%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Feeder futures led the livestock sell-off on import news and overextended positioning, with commercial net selling, though dated Aug 24 rather than the move day.