
Industry economists expect 2020 US beef production to rise about 1% and expect strong exports from trade deals, including the US-Japan agreement effective January 1. Pork exports could benefit from a China deal following African swine fever losses.
Expanding export demand for US meat could offset the modest supply growth and support livestock and pork prices.
After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 85 past bullish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +4.5%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.