Under the Phase 1 deal signed January 15, China committed to buy $36.3 billion of US farm products in 2020 and $43.3 billion in 2021, according to a joint statement. Soybeans are the largest component, and pork, sorghum, corn and distillers' grains could also rise.
The large purchase commitment, roughly 50% above 2017 levels, is a major structural demand signal for US soybeans and feed grains, supporting prices over the coming years.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.