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The WMO update from 28 April 2017 says neutral ENSO conditions currently exist, with a 50-60% chance of El Nino developing after June. Severe localized impacts in Peru and neighboring countries came from strong ocean warming and a collapse of the trade winds in February and March.
The WMO's El Nino probability outlook raises the medium-term risk of drought in key producing regions, which supports a small weather premium in grains and oilseeds. The effect is limited while the forecast remains uncertain.
marufish.comMay 1, 2017After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
