Rand spikes on ECB president Draghi’s tapering comments, Brazil’s unfolding crisis

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Sep 7, 2017Euro soars higher as ECB's Draghi comments on currency's strength-0.4%
• Jul 1, 2023Dollar weaker after data burst, euro rises on ECB comments+0.7%
• Oct 28, 2021Dollar index drops on euro rise after ECB comments-0.1%
• Oct 25, 2018Euro rises versus dollar after ECB's Draghi predicts inflation pick up-0.5%
• Jul 30, 2026Euro Rises on Strong Eurozone Data and ECB Rate Hike Bets+1.4%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Nov 9, 2016Brazil takes a hit as Trump elected US president - BNamericas+7.5%
• Jun 28, 2018How a Rising U.S. Dollar Puts Argentina's and Brazil's Economies at Risk+1.8%
• Jul 18, 2018Brazil: Presidential race about to start - Rabobank - Forex Crunch-3.2%
• Oct 31, 2022Brazil's real down after Lula wins presidential election; Bolsonaro yet to concede-5.8%
• Jan 9, 2023Brazil’s Real Weakens Following Attacks on Government Buildings-3.0%