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USDA's July 12 WASDE set the 2023 corn yield at 177.5 bu/acre, a 4-bushel cut from June, splitting the difference between model outcomes. New crop corn futures fell to $4.81, the lowest since March 2021, after the report.
The yield cut was in line with the average trade estimate, so the bearish price reaction reflects lower-than-hoped rally potential. Soybeans are seen having better upside than corn given the acreage shift.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrJul 17, 2023After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
