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Crop markets dipped after USDA's June 9 supply/demand report raised soybean ending stocks by 15 million bushels for old crop, due to a lower crush. Winter wheat production was raised to 1.824 billion bushels, with hard red winter wheat at 743 million.
Prices recovered as a Midwest heat wave pushed traders to add weather premiums.
Higher soybean stocks and a bigger wheat crop are bearish fundamentals, but the heat forecast supports prices. Traders are pricing weather risk above the supply numbers.
farmprogress.comBob Burgdorfer Senior Editor, Farm FuturesJun 9, 2017
feedstuffs.comBob Burgdorfer 1Jun 9, 2017After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
