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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology explains its El Niño WATCH stage, which means about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in the coming months, roughly double the normal annual likelihood. It notes an equal chance that the signals are short-lived and ENSO stays neutral or moves to La Niña.
A WATCH status signals possible drought risk for Australian wheat and barley and Southeast Asian palm oil later in 2017. The article is explanatory, so its direct price effect is limited.
media.bom.gov.auJun 13, 2017After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
