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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr links 2021 weather extremes, including South American dryness, northern Plains drought and European floods, to El Niño and La Niña patterns. La Niña has ended and neutral conditions prevail, but La Niña is expected to return this fall.
USDA put the US winter wheat yield at a near-record 53.6 bushels per acre.
A likely return of La Niña points to risks for South American and US crops into 2022, supporting forward feed grain prices. Strong US winter wheat yields add supply that partly offsets this.
farmprogress.comBryce KnorrJul 20, 2021After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
