
The IEA said in its monthly energy markets report that the gasoil market will remain tight well into 2027. Demand for diesel stays unusually high because Gulf supply has been reduced by the US war against Iran.
Tight diesel supply raises fuel costs for farm and feed logistics, including trucking and grain handling, and supports energy-linked feed input costs. Recovery depends on Middle East product flows returning.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.