Front-month ULSD futures rallied above $4.57 a gallon after EIA data showed distillate stocks fell to their lowest level in 14 years, 21% below the five-year average. The drop was larger than analysts expected even as middle-distillate demand stalled.
Distillate inventories at multi-year lows leave little cushion against demand, supporting diesel prices and keeping transport costs elevated for feed buyers.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
EIA data showing distillate stocks at a 14-year low, 21% below the five-year average, triggered a ULSD rally to above $4.57 on April 27, directly within the move window.