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The IEA said global oil supply is expected to drop by 8 million barrels per day in March, almost 8% of world demand, due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Gulf producers including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day.
The agency warned losses will grow without a rapid restart of shipping.
A supply shock of this size is the largest on record and tightens energy and fertilizer markets, raising input costs for feed producers. Prices are likely to stay elevated while the strait remains closed.
reuters.comAlex LawlerMar 12, 2026After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The IEA projected an 8 mb/d supply loss in March, which reinforces the supply shock and the tight product markets behind diesel's rally.
