European Commission data show EU farmgate milk prices fell almost 20% year-on-year despite higher milk supply and export volumes. Skimmed milk powder and whey powder prices rose sharply over the same period, while butter eased 3.8%.
Weak EU producer returns alongside strong powder prices show supply is being pushed into drying, which limits milk-side pressure on dairy feed ingredients. Milk prices are under pressure from the supply side.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.