
The USDA's May WASDE raised its 2024 milk production forecast to 227.3 billion pounds on more cows and higher output per cow. The 2025 estimate is 229.3 billion pounds, and the 2024 all-milk price forecast was raised to $21.20 per cwt, with Class III at $16.75 and Class IV at $20.25.
Expanding milk output is bearish for dairy commodity prices, while higher cheese and Class III forecasts signal firmer demand. Feed buyers should expect steady dairy margins and continued strong dairy cow feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.