
RHB Research keeps its underweight call on Indonesian plantations and expects weak crude palm oil prices through the next quarter. It forecasts vegetable oil surpluses of about 7 million tonnes in 2017 from rising rapeseed, US soybean and South American soybean output, and cites a proposed US Renewable Fuel Standard cut that would lower soybean oil use for biodiesel.
Expanding global oilseed supply and a possible US biofuel cut weigh on vegetable oil prices, including palm oil and soybean oil, through the second half of the year.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.