
USDA forecasts global sunflower production in 2025/26 to rise 8% to 56.2 million tonnes, with gains in Russia, the EU, Ukraine, Turkey and the US. Sunflower crush is forecast up 4.1 million tonnes to 51.8 million, and sunflower oil output up 1.8 million tonnes to 21.9 million.
A larger sunflower crop lifts meal and oil supply in the 2025/26 year, which is bearish for sunflower meal and oil prices and gives feed buyers more substitute options.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.