
Indonesia's November trade deficit widened to $2.05 billion, the largest since July 2013, against a Reuters poll that expected a deficit of about $830 million. Exports unexpectedly fell 3.28% year on year, led by lower sales of palm oil, pulp and paper, and crude oil.
Weaker palm oil export volumes point to softer demand for Indonesian palm oil, which is mildly bearish for palm prices. The wider deficit also adds pressure on the rupiah.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.