The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Indonesia's palm oil exports will rise by 1.5 million tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year. Global annual production is expected to rise 3.7%, with China and the EU ramping up imports.
Malaysia's labor problems are expected to ease in 2022.
Higher Indonesian output and exports, plus lower expected prices, point to a more plentiful palm oil supply and softer prices. Stronger import demand from China and the EU partly offsets this.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.