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Analyst Dorab Mistry raised his 2018 Indonesian palm oil output forecast to 40 million tonnes from 38.5 million, citing faster plantation expansion. He expects Malaysian end-2018 stocks to reach 3.0-3.3 million tonnes and Indonesian stocks to keep rising from near 5 million tonnes.
Higher output and heavy year-end stocks add supply pressure, and prices would need to fall toward about 2,100 ringgit to regain competitiveness.
thestar.com.myThe Star OnlineSep 28, 2018After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dorab Mistry's higher Indonesian output forecast and expected rise in Malaysian stocks, published just before the move, feed bearish supply sentiment that could carry into the next session.
Mistry's higher Indonesian output forecast and rising Malaysian and Indonesian stock expectations reinforce the bearish supply outlook.
