Crude oil extended its decline as Harvey left refineries closed along the Gulf Coast, with the Port Arthur refinery shutting down for flood conditions. WTI traded near $46 per barrel, and Goldman Sachs estimated up to 10 percent of regional refining capacity could be offline for months.
Lower refinery runs weaken crude demand and build Cushing stocks, pushing crude prices down while product tightness persists.
After 19 past bearish logistics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -6.6% to +2.3%), and +5.3% over 20.
After 36 past logistics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -4.6% to +3.2%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.