
USDA's quarterly Hogs & Pigs report was due Thursday, with pre-report estimates pointing to a 0.8% rise in the breeding herd and 2.8% more hogs for market. Record new packing plants in Michigan and Iowa are adding about 22,200 hogs per day, and a record daily kill of 460,000 was reached Sept.
25.
Record production expected in Q3 and Q4 raises the risk of lower hog prices, though new slaughter capacity and strong pork demand could support prices. Lower hog prices can push producers to cut feed purchases, weighing on corn and soymeal demand.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.