
Hog prices in China have risen 16 percent since early June to 14.8 yuan per kg as authorities in Shandong, Henan and Sichuan close polluting farms to meet environmental requirements. Hog feeding margins in Shandong have fallen to their lowest since mid-2015.
Shrinking Chinese sow herds and farm closures cut pork supply, supporting hog prices while squeezing farmer feed margins, which tends to reduce demand for feed in the near term.
After 37 past bullish policy events, HOGS moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.8% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.