The EPA published a notice on September 26 concerning potential reductions to 2018 and 2019 renewable volume obligations, mainly for biomass-based diesel. The notice also proposes using cellulosic waivers to lower advanced biofuel and total renewable fuel targets.
A 15-day comment period follows Federal Register publication.
Reduced RVOs would lower biodiesel and renewable fuel demand, weighing on soybean oil and related feedstock prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.