The expiration of the $1-per-gallon federal biodiesel tax credit about nine months earlier has raised the effective price of biodiesel to blenders by roughly $1 per gallon. EPA is weighing lower 2019 biodiesel mandates partly because of this.
The agency also cited possible US duties on imports from Indonesia and Argentina, with a decision due by December 29.
Higher effective biodiesel costs weigh on blending demand for soybean oil, which is a modest bearish factor. The pending import duty decision could also shift feedstock flows.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.