
China's Ministry of Commerce announced 2018 import tariff quotas for fertilizer totaling 13.65 million tonnes, including 3.30 Mt urea, 6.90 Mt MAP and 3.45 Mt compound fertilizers. The quotas carry a lower duty rate and are allocated first-come, first-served.
Quota volumes set the amount of fertilizer China can import at favourable duty, which shapes global urea and phosphate demand and export pricing in 2018. Tight allocations keep upward pressure on international fertilizer prices.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.