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Tariff news and a favorable WASDE drove a sharp soybean rally on May 12, with futures up $0.20-$0.25. The US and China agreed a 90-day tariff reduction, with China cutting its tariff on US imports to 10% from 125%.
Corn has moved little in May and both corn and soybeans have entered the weather market phase.
Lower tariffs reopen China to US soybeans, supporting soybean demand and prices, while corn and soy now depend on weather as the main price driver.
sites.udel.eduMay 16, 2025After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
