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Corn was excluded from the US-China trade agreement, prompting farmer selling, while soybeans rallied on confirmed Chinese commitments to buy 12 MMT by year-end and 25 MMT annually from 2026. Harvest is near 75% complete and ethanol output remains above year-ago levels.
Committed Chinese soybean purchases support soybean demand and prices, while corn faces record US supply and no trade-related demand boost.
blog.teucrium.comJoran HaugensNov 1, 2025After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
