
Malaysian palm oil futures fell 1.3% to 2,332 ringgit a tonne, touching a low not seen since August 2016. Traders blamed weak demand and expected poor May exports after Malaysia resumed its crude palm oil export tax at 5%.
Reinstating the export tax raises Malaysian palm costs for buyers, and weak export demand leaves stocks building, which points to lower palm prices and cheaper substitute vegetable oils for feed users.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 81 past neutral trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.