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Lean hog markets weakened as Trump warned of a 'really bad' two weeks ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak. Average U.S. hog weights fell to 285.4 lbs and packer margins dropped to $16.10 a head, with reports of heavy sow liquidation.
Weekly USDA export sales showed pork net sales of 38,200 metric tons, a relative bright spot.
Heavy sow liquidation and falling packer margins point to lower hog supply ahead, while weak domestic demand limits price recovery and softens feed grain demand.
thepigsite.comEmily HoughtonApr 3, 2020After 17 past bearish macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -2.5% to +0.8%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 78 past neutral macro events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Grim recession outlook, heavy sow liquidation and falling packer margins weighed on lean hogs in early April, adding to bearish sentiment.
Grim economic outlook, shrinking packer margins and sow liquidation signal weak demand and oversupply pressure on hog prices, though export sales were a partial offset.
