China could target US soybeans in a trade dispute, but Beijing is holding off for now

After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 28, 2020US-China trade: soybeans, corn and cars surge, but Beijing still not close to meeting demands of deal | South China Morning Post+1.8%
• Dec 19, 2019Trade war: China buys US soybeans after fresh round of tariff waivers, but will it be the last for some time? | South China Morning Post+1.0%
• Jan 20, 2026China hits 12 million ton US soybean target pledged in trade truce | Reuters+0.4%
• Sep 23, 2019China buys about 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans after trade talks+0.0%
• Jul 31, 2026Chinese buyers acquire US soybeans for October-November, traders say | South China Morning Post-1.7%

After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Dec 19, 2019Trade war: China buys US soybeans after fresh round of tariff waivers, but will it be the last for some time? | South China Morning Post-1.1%
• Sep 1, 2019The Trade War Is Creating a Windfall for Rivals of U.S. Soy in China-0.3%
• Feb 2, 2019Exclusive: China buys U.S. soybeans a day after trade talks - traders-1.8%
• Sep 18, 2025Soybean windfall brings pain to Argentina’s crushing industry amid US-China trade war-3.8%
• Dec 3, 2018Soybeans jump after China agrees to buy 'substantial' US ag products in trade truce-0.1%