
Hedge funds have made their largest bet in seven years that the dollar will weaken as US economic momentum appears to slow. The article notes the flattest US yield curve in over a decade and signs of slowing growth in other major economies.
Speculative dollar short positioning could reverse sharply and lift dollar-priced feed commodities, while a flat yield curve signals slowing demand expectations.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.