As U.S. economy’s exceptionalism fades, so does the dollar

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2020Canadian dollar strengthens as economy grows at a record pace - The Globe and Mail-1.2%
• Apr 26, 2019Canadian dollar rises as U.S. growth composition weighs on greenback - The Globe and Mail-0.2%
• Jan 31, 2017Loonie rallies as Trump’s ‘guns of Navarro’ knock U.S. dollar - The Globe and Mail-0.6%
• Feb 26, 2019Canadian dollar strengthens as Fed’s patience bruises greenback - The Globe and Mail+0.5%
• Jul 28, 2021Canadian dollar gains as Fed readies new money market facilities - The Globe and Mail-0.4%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jan 31, 2017Loonie rallies as Trump’s ‘guns of Navarro’ knock U.S. dollar - The Globe and Mail+0.5%
• Apr 14, 2025Why the U.S. dollar has plunged and euro soared on Trump tariffs+0.6%
• Feb 11, 2026Euro and yuan global ambitions hasten the dollar drop | Reuters-0.7%
• Apr 17, 2018Money managers wager the dollar will fall | The National-1.3%
• Feb 28, 2020Forex: US Dollar's Appeal Fades As Rate Cut Looms+2.0%