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Tunisia's phosphate output fell 40-50% between 2010 and 2017, with 2017 production at a historic low of 3.5m tonnes. Instability and protests continue to disrupt mining in the south.
Tunisia's reduced phosphate exports tighten a small part of global phosphate supply, giving modest support to phosphate fertilizer prices. The effect is marginal given the size of other producers.
After 11 past bullish disease events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half 0.0% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.