DAP prices rose in Europe and the US during the first half of August, driven by freight costs, higher ammonia feedstock prices in Europe, and a fire at a Moscow fertilizer warehouse. Damage to about 60,000 tons of fertilizer at Odesa port at the end of July also disrupted supply.
Supply disruptions and Russian export tightness lift phosphate input costs for livestock and grain producers, with fall demand likely to keep prices firm.
After 11 past bullish disease events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half 0.0% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.